BP: better probabilities.


Price for BP to file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in the United States at intrade.com

I have an intense interest and faith in prediction markets. So I have been following this Intrade market predicting whether BP will declare bankruptcy by Dec. 2010. As you can see, things have been looking up for BP. The quote is down from a high of around 17 to 8.1 today, which translates to an 8.1% probability that the bankruptcy will occur by the end of the year. This is of course consistent with BP’s recent announcements in the past week that it is ahead of schedule on the relief wells.

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