If you are one of the individuals who fears that the world will fall apart in late 2012, you can add to your predictions the ideas of Igor Panarin, who the Wall Street Journal reported today has seen his decade-old notion that the US will fall apart in 2010 achieve new-found popularity in Russia.
Mr. Panarin worked with the KGB during the existence of the USSR. Even though he extrapolates from statistical data (a no-no) to predict that demographic changes will make America split in 2010 (a weighty claim he clearly can’t back up), he has a really high and respected position in Russia: he is dean of the Russian Foreign Ministry’s academy for future diplomats.
Want to know how screwed up Russia is? They put this guy in charge of training the Russian foreign service, Russia’s representatives to the rest of the world. It blows my mind…
The guy came up with idea and presented it at a conference over a decade ago. He doesn’t see it as necessarily a good thing, but he things that unless a miracle occurs it is destined to happen. I would invert that claim and say that unless a nightmare occurs, the US is here to stay at least until 2012 when apparently the whole world goes to shit.
Anyways, here is the map that shows the lines along which Mr. Panarin believes the US will split, and the spheres of influence he thinks these regions will fall under
Being a southerner, I can’t see how he split The South in two, but I am sure that is only the beginning of flawed logic on his part.
Interestingly enough, George Kennan (a man with real credentials) at least pondered the idea of America splitting. He worried about the “hubris of inordinate size” a large nation would have, leading it to intervene too much in the affairs of other nations. Kennan proposed a devolution, an America that “while retaining certain of the rudiments of a federal government,” might yield a “dozen constituent republics, absorbing not only the powers of the existing states but a considerable part of those of the present federal establishment.”
However, I don’t forsee that happening in 2010, nor do I believe that it would lead to America being absorbed by other nations.